Offshore Guatemala
Mw5.610 November 2026
Distant earthquake recorded by the Belgian seismic network: the path of the waves to Uccle, predicted arrival times, seismograms of the Belgian stations and the USGS impact assessment.
- Magnitude
- 5.6Mw
- Depth
- 58.7km
- Belgian time
- 15:54:202026-11-10
- UTC
- 14:54:202026-11-10
- Distance to Uccle
- 9,201km · Δ 82.8°
- First wave at Uccle
- +12:18P · 15:06:38 UTC
In short
An earthquake of magnitude 5.6 (Mw) occurred on 10 November 2026 at 14:54 UTC (15:54 Belgian time) in the region “Offshore Guatemala”, at a depth of 59 km, according to the EMSC.
The epicentre lies 9,201 km from Uccle (epicentral distance 82.8°). The waves reach Belgium from the west-north-west (back azimuth 283°).
The first waves (P) reach Uccle 12 min 18 s after origin, at 15:06:38 UTC; the surface-wave train passes between 15:32 and 15:37 UTC.
According to the standard magnitude relations, this earthquake stands clearly above the background noise of a station like Uccle: expected amplitude of about 41 nm for body waves and 1.2 µm for Rayleigh waves.
According to the USGS PAGER assessment (“green” alert, low impact), the maximum shaking reaches intensity IV, with no population exposed to shaking of intensity VI or more.
Summary composed automatically from the EMSC parameters, the propagation models and the USGS products.
Measurable at Uccle?
Yes- Body waves period 1 s
- ≈ 41 nm32
- Rayleigh waves period 20 s
- ≈ 1.2 µm55
Expected amplitudesignal / noise
Measurement range of a station like Uccle for such an earthquake: beyond 100° for body waves, beyond 160° for Rayleigh waves.
Path of the waves to Uccle
- Epicentre · Offshore Guatemala
- Uccle (UCC)
- Belgium
- Path of the waves (great circle)
- Core shadow zone (98°–144°): no direct P or S wave
- Circles: epicentral distance from Uccle, every 30°
The Earth seen from space, turned so that the whole path is visible. Seen from above, the waves follow a great circle: the shortest route between the epicentre and the station over the Earth’s surface. Drag the globe to turn it. Base map: Natural Earth.
Azimuthal equidistant projection centred on Uccle: distances and directions from the station are exact, and the path of the waves is a straight line. Base map: Natural Earth.
Main parameters
- Date and time
- 2026-11-10 14:54:20 UTC
2026-11-10 15:54:20 Belgian time - Magnitude
- Mw 5.6
- Region
- Offshore Guatemala
- Epicentral coordinates
- 13.652° N, 90.781° W
- Depth of hypocenter
- 58.7 km
- Epicentral distance
- 82.8° · 9,201 km
- Arrival direction at Uccle
- 283° (WNW)
Azimuth from the epicentre : 39° - Data source
- EMSC-CSEM · EMSC
Focal mechanism (USGS)
- Nodal plane 1 (strike / dip / rake)
- 130° / 47° / 125°
- Nodal plane 2 (strike / dip / rake)
- 264° / 53° / 58°
- Seismic moment (57 % double couple)
- 2.90 × 10^17 N·m
- Principal axes (plunge / azimuth)
- T 65° / 113° · N 25° / 285° · P 3° / 16°
Equal-area projection of the lower hemisphere of the focal sphere from the moment tensor: coloured, the compressional quadrants; dotted, the nodal planes of the double couple (strike, dip, rake); P and T, pressure and tension axes.
Predicted arrivals at Uccle
Times at which the waves of the earthquake reach the Uccle station, from the IASP91 Earth model (body waves) and the GDM52 dispersion model (Rayleigh waves). These are predictions, not measurements.
Predicted arrival times, as a table
| Phase | after originmin:s | UTC | Belgian time | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDirect P wave | +12:18 | 15:06:38 | 16:06:38 | |
| SDirect S wave | +22:31 | 15:16:52 | 16:16:52 | |
| RayleighRayleigh wave train, periods 250 to 25 s | +38:33 – 43:08 | 15:32 – 15:37 | 16:32 – 16:37 |
Method and sources
Rayleigh window: from the arrival of the fastest period (50 s, 3.98 km/s) to that of the slowest (25 s, 3.56 km/s) along this path (GDM52). Shorter, slower periods arrive afterwards.
Body waves: IASP91 travel times (Kennett & Engdahl, 1991), computed with TauP for a source at 59 km. Rayleigh waves: GDM52 group velocities (Ekström, 2011). Not included: ellipticity and elevation (about a second), Earth heterogeneity (a few seconds), later phases (pP, PP, SS…).
Measurable at Uccle? Order of magnitude: standard IASPEI magnitude relations (2013) read backwards, against the median noise level of the Peterson models (1993), where the noise measured at Uccle sits; measurable when signal / noise ≥ 3. The focal mechanism and the structure along the path are ignored.
Seismograms of the Belgian network
Vertical ground motion recorded by 6 broadband stations of the Belgian network, from top to bottom by increasing distance from the epicentre. The lines and the coloured band mark the arrivals predicted by the model, not measurements.
- Predicted arrival of P waves (P, Pdiff, PKP)
- Predicted arrival of S waves (S, Sdiff, SKS)
- Predicted window of the Rayleigh wave train
Draw a rectangle on the chart to enlarge an area; double-click to return to the full view.
Stations plotted
| Region | Epicentral distance | Arrival direction at Uccle | First wave at Uccle |
|---|---|---|---|
| LES · Lessines BE.LES..HHZ | 82.46° | 282° | P +12:16 · 15:06:36 UTC |
| UCCS · Uccle BE.UCCS..HHZ | 82.76° | 283° | P +12:18 · 15:06:38 UTC |
| DOU · Dourbes BE.DOU..HHZ | 83.06° | 283° | P +12:19 · 15:06:39 UTC |
| MOLT · Mol BE.MOLT..HHZ | 83.12° | 283° | P +12:19 · 15:06:40 UTC |
| MEM · Membach BE.MEM..HHZ | 83.83° | 284° | P +12:23 · 15:06:43 UTC |
| HOU · Houvegnez BE.HOU..HHZ | 83.89° | 284° | P +12:23 · 15:06:44 UTC |
Method and sources
Vertical component (HHZ channel), reduced from 100 to 10 samples per second when the site is updated (Butterworth anti-aliasing low-pass at 2.5 Hz, applied in both directions), then, in the browser, detrended and band-pass filtered with a Butterworth filter in both directions, so without shifting the arrivals. Each trace is scaled to its maximum in the displayed window; that maximum, on the right, is the signal divided by the sensitivity of the instrument, without correcting its frequency response.
Signals: public archive of ORFEUS (EIDA), network BE (Royal Observatory of Belgium).
Spectrograms at Uccle (UCCS)
Distribution of the amplitude of the UCCS signal over time and wave period: each column is an instant, each row a period, the colour the amplitude in decibels below the maximum, the same for both components.
- Rayleigh and LoveThe vertical component shows the Rayleigh waves; the transverse component, perpendicular to the direction of arrival, shows the Love waves, which have no vertical motion and arrive slightly earlier.
- DispersionSurface waves arrive spread out according to their period: this is dispersion. The shortest, around 25 s, usually arrive last; the fastest are usually the longest for Love, intermediate periods (40 to 100 s) for Rayleigh.
- Curves and linesThe curves are the arrival predicted for each period by the GDM52 model, the lines the predicted arrivals of the P and S waves; these are predictions, not measurements.
- Predicted arrival of P waves (P, Pdiff, PKP)
- Predicted arrival of S waves (S, Sdiff, SKS)
- Predicted arrival of the Rayleigh waves, period by period (GDM52, periods of 25 s and longer)
- Predicted arrival of the Love waves, period by period (GDM52, periods of 25 s and longer)
- Faded areas
Hover over the spectrogram to read the time, period and amplitude.
- Faded areas: the analysis window (filter and smoothing) extends beyond the available signal (edges, gaps)
Method and sources
Multiple filter technique (Dziewonski, Bloch & Landisman, 1969), applied when the site is updated to the raw signal (100 samples per second): trend removed, ends tapered over 30 s, then, for each of the 81 periods from 1 to 100 s, a Gaussian filter exp(−α ((f − f₀)/f₀)²) with α = 50 and the envelope of the analytic signal; the power (squared envelope) is smoothed in time with a Gaussian whose standard deviation equals the filter’s, √(2α) T₀ / 2π (the smoothing operator of Torrence & Webster, 1999, used by Grinsted et al., 2004), and the displayed amplitude is its square root, the RMS amplitude at the filter’s resolution, free of the fades of the instantaneous envelope; one sample every 1.28 s. Up to normalisation, this computation is equivalent to a continuous wavelet transform with the Morlet wavelet (ω₀ = √(2α) ≈ 10). Amplitudes as ground velocity, corrected for the frequency response of the sensor (poles and zeros from the ORFEUS inventory), in decibels relative to the maximum; below −60 dB, the background colour.
Transverse: −E·cos β + N·sin β, with β the back-azimuth of 283°, the direction from the station to the epicentre (ObsPy convention); both horizontals are converted to velocity with their sensitivity before the rotation; both components share the same 0 dB.
The horizontal band already present before the waves arrive, strongest here around a period of 5.6 s, is the permanent background noise generated by ocean waves (microseisms); it does not come from the earthquake.
Computation checked against a second, independent implementation (ObsPy and NumPy) on the same signal. Signals: public archive of ORFEUS (EIDA), network BE (Royal Observatory of Belgium).
Path of the waves through the Earth
How the waves of this earthquake travel through the Earth to reach UCC, at 82.8°: the rays of the IASP91 model for a focus 59 km deep, as a cross-section, a fan, a depth profile and travel-time curves. These are computations, not measurements.
- Leg travelled as a P wave
- Leg travelled as an S wave
- Rayleigh waves, along the surface
- Love waves, along the surface, slightly faster
- Focus, 59 km deep
- Rays shot every 2°
- Rays reaching UCC
- Leg travelled as a P wave
- Leg travelled as an S wave
- Core shadow zone (98°–144°)
- Focus, 59 km deep
- Leg travelled as a P wave
- Leg travelled as an S wave
- Focus, 59 km deep
- P waves (P, Pdiff, PKPdf)
- S waves (S, Sdiff, SKS)
- Weak amplitude (diffracted, PKPdf before the caustic)
- Rayleigh waves
- Love waves
- Predicted arrivals at UCC
- Core shadow zone (98°–144°)
Ray characteristics
| Phase | Travel time min:s | Take-off angle | Incidence at UCC | Deepest point | Path length | Ray parameter s/° |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | +12:18 | 22° | 16° | 2,430 km · mantle | 8,611 km | 5.18 |
| S | +22:31 | 24° | 18° | 2,276 km · mantle | 8,549 km | 10.14 |
Angles are measured from the vertical: 0° for a vertical ray, 90° for a horizontal one, more than 90° for a ray leaving upwards. The ray parameter, in seconds per degree, is the apparent slowness of the wavefront along the surface; it is conserved all along the ray (Snell’s law).
Method and sources
Rays computed when the site is updated by integrating the ray equations in IASP91 (velocity linear within each layer, ray parameter conserved at interfaces, first arrival kept when several rays exist), checked against TauP (ObsPy) on randomly drawn depth–distance pairs: travel time within 0.01 s, angles within 0.01°, depth along the ray within one kilometre. The fans are checked the same way, ray by ray; the travel-time curves are the tables computed by TauP.
Estimated impact (USGS PAGER)
In the hours after an earthquake, the USGS PAGER system estimates the population exposed to each level of shaking and the likelihood of human and economic losses. The Observatory reproduces its results here.
Low likelihood of casualties and damage.
- 19 “Did You Feel It?” reports (USGS), felt intensity IV
Population exposed by intensity
| Intensity | People | |
|---|---|---|
| II–III | 1,199,252 | |
| IV | 830,690 | |
| V | – | |
| VI | – | |
| VII | – | |
| VIII | – | |
| IX | – | |
| X+ | – |
Estimated fatalities
- 0–190 %
- 1–109 %
- 10–100< 1 %
- 100–1,000< 1 %
- 1,000–10,000< 1 %
- 10,000–100,000< 1 %
- 100,000+< 1 %
Estimate : 0
Estimated economic losses
- < 1 M$90 %
- 1 M$–10 M$9 %
- 10 M$–100 M$< 1 %
- 100 M$–1 bn$< 1 %
- 1 bn$–10 bn$< 1 %
- 10 bn$–100 bn$< 1 %
- > 100 bn$< 1 %
Estimate : 0 USD
Cities
| City | Population | Intensity |
|---|---|---|
| Puerto San Jose | 23,887 | IV Light |
| Sipacate | 18,212 | IV Light |
| La Gomera | 58,272 | IV Light |
| Iztapa | 61,448 | IV Light |
| Nueva Concepcion | 130,754 | IV Light |
| Masagua | 48,552 | IV Light |
| Tiquisate | 63,971 | IV Light |
| Escuintla | 170,280 | IV Light |
| Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa | 127,683 | III Weak |
| Chiquimulilla | 64,871 | III Weak |
| Palin | 72,203 | III Weak |
Intensity map (ShakeMap)

ShakeMap version 3
Page on the USGS websiteFull PAGER report (PDF, USGS)
Source: USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov), PAGER and ShakeMap products, not reviewed by the Observatory. Data read on 2026-11-11 00:33. PAGER version 3, processed on 2026-11-10 16:59 UTC.
Earthquake parameters: Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC-CSEM), not reviewed by the Observatory.
Source: Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC-CSEM, seismicportal.eu). EMSC data, not reviewed by the Observatory. · Data policy
USGS comments
Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.
Buildings — Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are mud wall and informal (metal, timber, GI etc.) construction.
Secondary effects — Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.
Past earthquakes — A magnitude 7.5 earthquake 270 km n of this event struck Guatemala on February 4, 1976 (UTC), with estimated population exposures of 1,017,000 at intensity VIII and 80,000 at intensity IX or greater, resulting in a reported 22,778 fatalities.