Offshore Guatemala

Mw5.610 November 2026

Distant earthquake recorded by the Belgian seismic network: the path of the waves to Uccle, predicted arrival times, seismograms of the Belgian stations and the USGS impact assessment.

Magnitude
5.6Mw
Depth
58.7km
Belgian time
15:54:202026-11-10
UTC
14:54:202026-11-10
Distance to Uccle
9,201km · Δ 82.8°
First wave at Uccle
+12:18P · 15:06:38 UTC

In short

An earthquake of magnitude 5.6 (Mw) occurred on 10 November 2026 at 14:54 UTC (15:54 Belgian time) in the region “Offshore Guatemala”, at a depth of 59 km, according to the EMSC.

The epicentre lies 9,201 km from Uccle (epicentral distance 82.8°). The waves reach Belgium from the west-north-west (back azimuth 283°).

The first waves (P) reach Uccle 12 min 18 s after origin, at 15:06:38 UTC; the surface-wave train passes between 15:32 and 15:37 UTC.

According to the standard magnitude relations, this earthquake stands clearly above the background noise of a station like Uccle: expected amplitude of about 41 nm for body waves and 1.2 µm for Rayleigh waves.

According to the USGS PAGER assessment (“green” alert, low impact), the maximum shaking reaches intensity IV, with no population exposed to shaking of intensity VI or more.

Summary composed automatically from the EMSC parameters, the propagation models and the USGS products.

Measurable at Uccle?

Yes

Measurable at Uccle: how it is estimated

Using the standard magnitude relations and the background noise of a station like Uccle.

Preparing the animation…

1The ground never stops

Even without earthquakes, the ground moves a little: wind, swell, human activity. At a station like Uccle, this background noise is about 1.3 nm for vibrations of about 1 s, those of body waves (roughly a millionth of a millimetre), and 22 nm near 20 s, those of surface waves. To be measured, a wave must clearly exceed this noise.

Curves computed with the same relations as the section: inverted IASPEI (2013) formulas, Scordilis (2006) conversions, median noise of the Peterson (1993) models.

Body waves period 1 s
≈ 41 nm32
Rayleigh waves period 20 s
≈ 1.2 µm55

Expected amplitudesignal / noise

Measurement range of a station like Uccle for such an earthquake: beyond 100° for body waves, beyond 160° for Rayleigh waves.

Path of the waves to Uccle

9,201 kmEpicentreUccle (UCC)BelgiumNatural Earth
  • Epicentre · Offshore Guatemala
  • Uccle (UCC)
  • Belgium
  • Path of the waves (great circle)
  • Core shadow zone (98°–144°): no direct P or S wave
  • Circles: epicentral distance from Uccle, every 30°

The Earth seen from space, turned so that the whole path is visible. Seen from above, the waves follow a great circle: the shortest route between the epicentre and the station over the Earth’s surface. Drag the globe to turn it. Base map: Natural Earth.

Azimuthal equidistant projection centred on Uccle: distances and directions from the station are exact, and the path of the waves is a straight line. Base map: Natural Earth.

Main parameters

Date and time
2026-11-10 14:54:20 UTC
2026-11-10 15:54:20 Belgian time
Magnitude
Mw 5.6
Region
Offshore Guatemala
Epicentral coordinates
13.652° N, 90.781° W
Depth of hypocenter
58.7 km
Epicentral distance
82.8° · 9,201 km
Arrival direction at Uccle
283° (WNW)
Azimuth from the epicentre : 39°
Data source
EMSC-CSEM · EMSC

Focal mechanism (USGS)

How to read the focal mechanism

Based on the mechanism published by the USGS for this earthquake.

Preparing the animation…

1A slipping fault

This earthquake is a reverse fault: one block rides up over the other along an inclined plane, a sign of a crust being compressed. The drawing assumes the fault is the USGS nodal plane 1: strike 130° from north, dip 47°, rake 125°.

Double couple of nodal plane 1 published by the USGS; the drawing and classification are computed on this page, with the same calculation as the page’s beach ball.

Focal mechanism (USGS)PT(130, 47, 125)(264, 53, 58)
Nodal plane 1 (strike / dip / rake)
130° / 47° / 125°
Nodal plane 2 (strike / dip / rake)
264° / 53° / 58°
Seismic moment (57 % double couple)
2.90 × 10^17 N·m
Principal axes (plunge / azimuth)
T 65° / 113° · N 25° / 285° · P 3° / 16°

Equal-area projection of the lower hemisphere of the focal sphere from the moment tensor: coloured, the compressional quadrants; dotted, the nodal planes of the double couple (strike, dip, rake); P and T, pressure and tension axes.

Predicted arrivals at Uccle

Times at which the waves of the earthquake reach the Uccle station, from the IASP91 Earth model (body waves) and the GDM52 dispersion model (Rayleigh waves). These are predictions, not measurements.

Timeline of the arrivals at Uccle
05101520253035404550minutes after origin timePSRayleigh
Predicted arrival times, as a table
Phaseafter originmin:sUTCBelgian timeRemark
PDirect P wave+12:1815:06:3816:06:38
SDirect S wave+22:3115:16:5216:16:52
RayleighRayleigh wave train, periods 250 to 25 s+38:33 – 43:0815:32 – 15:3716:32 – 16:37
Method and sources

Rayleigh window: from the arrival of the fastest period (50 s, 3.98 km/s) to that of the slowest (25 s, 3.56 km/s) along this path (GDM52). Shorter, slower periods arrive afterwards.

Body waves: IASP91 travel times (Kennett & Engdahl, 1991), computed with TauP for a source at 59 km. Rayleigh waves: GDM52 group velocities (Ekström, 2011). Not included: ellipticity and elevation (about a second), Earth heterogeneity (a few seconds), later phases (pP, PP, SS…).

Measurable at Uccle? Order of magnitude: standard IASPEI magnitude relations (2013) read backwards, against the median noise level of the Peterson models (1993), where the noise measured at Uccle sits; measurable when signal / noise ≥ 3. The focal mechanism and the structure along the path are ignored.

Seismograms of the Belgian network

Vertical ground motion recorded by 6 broadband stations of the Belgian network, from top to bottom by increasing distance from the epicentre. The lines and the coloured band mark the arrivals predicted by the model, not measurements.

Passband
Sound
  • Predicted arrival of P waves (P, Pdiff, PKP)
  • Predicted arrival of S waves (S, Sdiff, SKS)
  • Predicted window of the Rayleigh wave train

Draw a rectangle on the chart to enlarge an area; double-click to return to the full view.

Loading signals…

Stations plotted
RegionEpicentral distanceArrival direction at UccleFirst wave at Uccle
LES · Lessines BE.LES..HHZ82.46°282°P +12:16 · 15:06:36 UTC
UCCS · Uccle BE.UCCS..HHZ82.76°283°P +12:18 · 15:06:38 UTC
DOU · Dourbes BE.DOU..HHZ83.06°283°P +12:19 · 15:06:39 UTC
MOLT · Mol BE.MOLT..HHZ83.12°283°P +12:19 · 15:06:40 UTC
MEM · Membach BE.MEM..HHZ83.83°284°P +12:23 · 15:06:43 UTC
HOU · Houvegnez BE.HOU..HHZ83.89°284°P +12:23 · 15:06:44 UTC
Method and sources

Vertical component (HHZ channel), reduced from 100 to 10 samples per second when the site is updated (Butterworth anti-aliasing low-pass at 2.5 Hz, applied in both directions), then, in the browser, detrended and band-pass filtered with a Butterworth filter in both directions, so without shifting the arrivals. Each trace is scaled to its maximum in the displayed window; that maximum, on the right, is the signal divided by the sensitivity of the instrument, without correcting its frequency response.

Signals: public archive of ORFEUS (EIDA), network BE (Royal Observatory of Belgium).

Spectrograms at Uccle (UCCS)

Distribution of the amplitude of the UCCS signal over time and wave period: each column is an instant, each row a period, the colour the amplitude in decibels below the maximum, the same for both components.

Surface waves

How Rayleigh and Love waves move the ground, and why they arrive spread out.

Preparing the animation…

1Body waves, surface waves

P and S waves travel through the Earth’s interior: at UCCS, 9,201 km from the epicentre, P arrives 12 min 18 s after the earthquake and S 22 min 31 s. Surface waves travel along the surface, more slowly: the Love waves arrive first, from 34 min 21 s, then the Rayleigh waves, from 38 min 33 s. For the periods of the spectrogram, the wave train lasts until 43 min 8 s.

Schematic ground motion, exaggerated amplitudes. Surface-wave speeds and arrivals: GDM52 model (Ekström, 2011) along the path, like the spectrogram curves; P and S waves: IASP91.

  • Rayleigh and LoveThe vertical component shows the Rayleigh waves; the transverse component, perpendicular to the direction of arrival, shows the Love waves, which have no vertical motion and arrive slightly earlier.
  • DispersionSurface waves arrive spread out according to their period: this is dispersion. The shortest, around 25 s, usually arrive last; the fastest are usually the longest for Love, intermediate periods (40 to 100 s) for Rayleigh.
  • Curves and linesThe curves are the arrival predicted for each period by the GDM52 model, the lines the predicted arrivals of the P and S waves; these are predictions, not measurements.
0 dB
Sound
  • Predicted arrival of P waves (P, Pdiff, PKP)
  • Predicted arrival of S waves (S, Sdiff, SKS)
  • Predicted arrival of the Rayleigh waves, period by period (GDM52, periods of 25 s and longer)
  • Predicted arrival of the Love waves, period by period (GDM52, periods of 25 s and longer)
  • Faded areas

Hover over the spectrogram to read the time, period and amplitude.

Loading signals…

  • Faded areas: the analysis window (filter and smoothing) extends beyond the available signal (edges, gaps)
Method and sources

Multiple filter technique (Dziewonski, Bloch & Landisman, 1969), applied when the site is updated to the raw signal (100 samples per second): trend removed, ends tapered over 30 s, then, for each of the 81 periods from 1 to 100 s, a Gaussian filter exp(−α ((f − f₀)/f₀)²) with α = 50 and the envelope of the analytic signal; the power (squared envelope) is smoothed in time with a Gaussian whose standard deviation equals the filter’s, √(2α) T₀ / 2π (the smoothing operator of Torrence & Webster, 1999, used by Grinsted et al., 2004), and the displayed amplitude is its square root, the RMS amplitude at the filter’s resolution, free of the fades of the instantaneous envelope; one sample every 1.28 s. Up to normalisation, this computation is equivalent to a continuous wavelet transform with the Morlet wavelet (ω₀ = √(2α) ≈ 10). Amplitudes as ground velocity, corrected for the frequency response of the sensor (poles and zeros from the ORFEUS inventory), in decibels relative to the maximum; below −60 dB, the background colour.

Transverse: −E·cos β + N·sin β, with β the back-azimuth of 283°, the direction from the station to the epicentre (ObsPy convention); both horizontals are converted to velocity with their sensitivity before the rotation; both components share the same 0 dB.

The horizontal band already present before the waves arrive, strongest here around a period of 5.6 s, is the permanent background noise generated by ocean waves (microseisms); it does not come from the earthquake.

Computation checked against a second, independent implementation (ObsPy and NumPy) on the same signal. Signals: public archive of ORFEUS (EIDA), network BE (Royal Observatory of Belgium).

Path of the waves through the Earth

How the waves of this earthquake travel through the Earth to reach UCC, at 82.8°: the rays of the IASP91 model for a focus 59 km deep, as a cross-section, a fan, a depth profile and travel-time curves. These are computations, not measurements.

How the waves travel through the Earth

This earthquake’s waves up to UCC, in the IASP91 Earth model.

Preparing the animation…

1The Earth in cross-section

This is a cross-section of the Earth to scale, through the epicentre and station UCC, 82.8° away, or 9,201 km along the surface. The focus is 59 km deep. Below the crust, the solid mantle reaches down to 2,889 km; then come the liquid outer core and, from 5,154 km, the solid inner core.

Rays computed for this earthquake in the IASP91 model (Kennett & Engdahl, 1991), like the views of this section; time runs fast.

mantleouter coreRayleighLovePSUCC
  • Leg travelled as a P wave
  • Leg travelled as an S wave
  • Rayleigh waves, along the surface
  • Love waves, along the surface, slightly faster
  • Focus, 59 km deep
Cross-section of the Earth in the plane of the great circle between the epicentre and UCC, to scale: rays of the body waves predicted in the IASP91 model for a focus 59 km deep and a distance of 82.8°, and the path of the surface waves along the surface. Dotted: the discontinuities at 410 and 660 km; the liquid outer core starts at 2,889 km and the inner core at 5,154 km.

Ray characteristics

PhaseTravel time min:sTake-off angleIncidence at UCCDeepest pointPath lengthRay parameter s/°
P+12:1822°16°2,430 km · mantle8,611 km5.18
S+22:3124°18°2,276 km · mantle8,549 km10.14

Angles are measured from the vertical: 0° for a vertical ray, 90° for a horizontal one, more than 90° for a ray leaving upwards. The ray parameter, in seconds per degree, is the apparent slowness of the wavefront along the surface; it is conserved all along the ray (Snell’s law).

Method and sources

Rays computed when the site is updated by integrating the ray equations in IASP91 (velocity linear within each layer, ray parameter conserved at interfaces, first arrival kept when several rays exist), checked against TauP (ObsPy) on randomly drawn depth–distance pairs: travel time within 0.01 s, angles within 0.01°, depth along the ray within one kilometre. The fans are checked the same way, ray by ray; the travel-time curves are the tables computed by TauP.

Estimated impact (USGS PAGER)

In the hours after an earthquake, the USGS PAGER system estimates the population exposed to each level of shaking and the likelihood of human and economic losses. The Observatory reproduces its results here.

PAGER · GreenLow impact

Low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Maximum shakingIntensity IVLight
Other USGS indicators
  • 19 “Did You Feel It?” reports (USGS), felt intensity IV

Population exposed by intensity

IntensityPeople
II–III1,199,252
IV830,690
V–
VI–
VII–
VIII–
IX–
X+–

Estimated fatalities

  1. 0–190 %
  2. 1–109 %
  3. 10–100< 1 %
  4. 100–1,000< 1 %
  5. 1,000–10,000< 1 %
  6. 10,000–100,000< 1 %
  7. 100,000+< 1 %

Estimate : 0

Estimated economic losses

  1. < 1 M$90 %
  2. 1 M$–10 M$9 %
  3. 10 M$–100 M$< 1 %
  4. 100 M$–1 bn$< 1 %
  5. 1 bn$–10 bn$< 1 %
  6. 10 bn$–100 bn$< 1 %
  7. > 100 bn$< 1 %

Estimate : 0 USD

USGS comments

Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

Buildings — Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are mud wall and informal (metal, timber, GI etc.) construction.

Secondary effects — Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Past earthquakes — A magnitude 7.5 earthquake 270 km n of this event struck Guatemala on February 4, 1976 (UTC), with estimated population exposures of 1,017,000 at intensity VIII and 80,000 at intensity IX or greater, resulting in a reported 22,778 fatalities.

Cities

CityPopulationIntensity
Puerto San Jose23,887IV Light
Sipacate18,212IV Light
La Gomera58,272IV Light
Iztapa61,448IV Light
Nueva Concepcion130,754IV Light
Masagua48,552IV Light
Tiquisate63,971IV Light
Escuintla170,280IV Light
Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa127,683III Weak
Chiquimulilla64,871III Weak
Palin72,203III Weak

Intensity map (ShakeMap)

USGS ShakeMap: estimated shaking intensity around the epicentre

ShakeMap version 3

Source: USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov), PAGER and ShakeMap products, not reviewed by the Observatory. Data read on 2026-11-11 00:33. PAGER version 3, processed on 2026-11-10 16:59 UTC.

Earthquake parameters: Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC-CSEM), not reviewed by the Observatory.

Source: Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC-CSEM, seismicportal.eu). EMSC data, not reviewed by the Observatory. · Data policy